Emerging Broadband Wireless Horse Race Is On, New Visant Strategies Study Finds

Kings Park, NY -- The recent certification of commercial WiMAX gear represents a major milestone for the 802.16 industry but competition looms from existing and evolving IP based wireless technologies, a new Visant Strategies study finds. Alternatives to WiMAX such as FLASH-OFDM, UMTS-TDD and in some cases TD-SCDMA or HSDPA are being considered worldwide, according to the just published study, "Emerging Wireless 2006."

"Right now the competitive scenario suggests a fragmented market with diverse opportunities for vendors and operators alike," said report author Andy Fuertes. "WiMAX backers are expected to establish a healthy marketplace in the fixed marketplace and also within certain mobile segments, particularly in those nations deploying basic telecommunications infrastructure. Many opportunities still remain outside of WiMAX in both the fixed space and in the next generation of mobile networks. Some of these will bring more dollars to the table than we see WiMAX bringing in."

Shipments of WiMAX customer premise equipment is expected to reach 7.2 million units in 2010, according to the study, but these shipments will be dwarfed by TD-SCDMA shipments. The Chinese standard is expected to be up and running in networks by year-end 2006 and will serve 100 million subscribers in China by 2010, where the lion's share of TD-SCDMA subscribers will reside.

Also according to the study, FLASH-OFDM subscribers are expected to exceed 13 million in 2010 while UMTS FDD radio shipments are projected to be valued at $2 billion that year.

"Mobile operators are looking at all of their options now that there are seemingly so many competitively-priced alternatives and any significant movement in the mobile sector favoring one of these options will obviously have a large impact on the emerging wireless industry," said Visant Strategies' Larry Swasey.

The report details subscriber growth, device shipments, radio shipments and the revenues from such through 2010 in most cases and 2013 in some cases for TD-SCDMA, UMTS TDD, 802.16, 802.20, and proprietary next generation networks.

SOURCE: Visant Strategies