The next wireless revolution

By Grant Wakelin, president of ADC's Enhanced Services Division

Everyone in the wireless industry realizes that the race is on to define the next generation of mobile communications. Where exactly the finish line is situated—and which players have the early lead—isn't entirely clear yet. But as service and content providers, device manufacturers and infrastructure companies prepare for the emergence of third-generation mobile networks, certain realities are coming into focus.

For starters, we can expect that enormous changes will be felt across every segment of the wireless business, from the services and content available in the mobile environment to the industry's underlying partnerships and profit models. And, these changes are going to happen fast.

A recent Yankee Group study predicts that 54% of Americans will own a Web browser-enabled mobile phone by 2004, and Ovum has estimated that the number of individuals with wireless Internet access—via PDA or handset—will explode to 484 million worldwide by 2005. These advances in technology and capability will alter the voice-based service model that dominates today's mobile marketplace. Just as intense competition and an expanding marketplace have driven down the value and profitability of long distance services in the wireline world, so will voice services become commoditized in the broadband wireless realm.

In concert with the technological innovation of broadband wireless technologies, surging demand for mobile communication will drive the market forward. And that demand will no longer just be for simple voice services. When 3G wireless networks come online—2003 at the earliest in the U.S.—individuals will be able to access content on their handsets at speeds up to 2Mbps. This huge leap in bandwidth from today's speeds of 14.4Kbps means that wireless email, Web-surfing and mobile-commerce will become key elements in every service provider's slate of offerings. Moreover, broadband wireless networks will present industry players with an excellent opportunity to cross over and expand into once-distinct segments. Content providers will be able to offer voice and enhanced services. Infrastructure providers will be in an excellent position to stake out valuable positions in the m-commerce space.

Meeting the Challenge: Establishing Brands in the New Wireless Marketplace
As we can see, communications—especially wireless—is no longer just about connecting calls and "owning the customer." When individuals can access all of their communications—email, Web, m-commerce, streaming video—in a mobile environment, they will have limitless choices about who to get these services from. Look at the Internet today: free email, fax and content services abound. Regardless of who your ISP may be, you can still buy a book at Amazon, or Borders or Barnes & Noble. Need a real-time stock quotes? You can get them from hundreds of sites online.

Much like at the dawn of the PC revolution or the early days of the Internet, wireless in the broadband era will be all about solidifying the relationship with the individual. Service providers must convince their customers that they are the company to rely on for the long term. When we look back at the companies and products that defined desktop computing and the Internet—Microsoft Windows, the Mac OS, AOL, Yahoo—the single common link is ease of use. All these companies put a friendly face on new, and for many people intimidating, technologies. Yahoo's dead-simple interface, for instance, said to Web newbies "we get it, and we can help you get it too."

At the dawn of the broadband wireless revolution, the landscape looks similar, but with important differences. Yes, the most successful entities in the new wireless marketplace will be those companies that can deliver rich experiences through a simple interface. But the range of content and services available though 3G networks will be far more complex than through a simple dial-up Internet connection. In fact, the capabilities of 3G technologies are such that interfaces and service plans will have to go beyond our accepted notions of "user-friendly." For subscribers to realize the full potential of broadband wireless, these new services must adapt to the needs of the individual.

Adaptive Communications
At ADC, we believe it is vitally important to view the coming wireless revolution in terms of how it will affect individual customers. What are their needs? Which types of content and services will they value most? How do they want to access these services? These are the central concerns that will determine the winners and losers in broadband wireless. If you can offer lifestyle-enhancing services that are seamlessly easy to use, you will become extremely valuable to your individual customers. In fact, you'll have the opportunity to become an essential part of their lives. It's a tremendous opportunity to carve out a major brand in an entirely new space.

ADC's approach to this new market reality is to concentrate on creating a wireless environment based on adaptive communications. Progressing beyond the functionality and underlying technologies of enhanced services, adaptive communications enable individual subscribers to fully exploit broadband access, while at the same time creating valuable new revenue streams for service providers. The new adaptive communications experience—and the platforms on which these new services are based—will coalesce around a few basic principles, including operational simplicity, scalability and Web-integration. Vitally important will be a consistent interface across all services and content offerings. Easy conversion from text-to-speech and vice versa will be key.

Consider this: Two or three years from now when a busy soccer mom from Peoria goes out to buy a new wireless phone and is confronted with dozens of choices in mobile devices and service plans, what do you think she's most likely choose? The offering that she'll have to program and update constantly? Or the offering that will continually adapt to her individual needs? Next month we'll explore her choices in detail, and the difference that adaptive communications is likely to play in her decision.